Air cargo spot rates were sky high in August as demand and capacity imbalances continued, flanked by additional e-commerce and Red Sea shipping disruption-related demand.
Average spot rates showed their largest year-on-year growth of 24%, according to the latest monthly analysis by Xeneta.
Global average air cargo spot rates were recorded at $2.68 per kg in August. Meanwhile, global cargo supply grew at its slowest ratio in 2024 to date, at 2% year on year, while global cargo demand continued its double-digit growth, rising 11%.
In terms of dynamic load factor – Xeneta’s measurement of capacity utilisation based on volume and weight of cargo flown alongside available capacity – the supply/demand imbalance led to the global load factor increasing four percentage points year on year to 58% in August.
Additionally, there were ocean-to-air shifts due to Red Sea disruptions and e-commerce continued to show strong growth ahead of the fourth-quarter peak season.
“Typically, air cargo market performance in August tends to follow the July trend. But another month of double-digit demand growth and the strongest rate growth of the year means there was definitely no summer slack season in 2024,” said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer.
“Rates we saw bottoming out in late July started picking up again in mid-August. This is too short a period to call a season. This has been a busy summer, and now we’re at the threshold of Q4, it will be interesting to see what will happen and if all the anticipation of a red hot peak season materialises.”
But although year-on-year spot rates were up in August, month-on-month rates were down 1%, likely reflecting a slight cooling of ocean-to-air shift due to ocean shipping frontloading of imports, said Xeneta.
Xeneta’s analysis also showed that global air cargo volume growth slowed down in August compared to earlier this year – demand increased 11% year on year in August compared with 14% in July and 13% in June.
But the analyst added that this was anticipated, with the following months likely to follow suit.
This is in part because demand in the corresponding months earlier in 2023 was weaker compared to the peak in volumes in the fourth quarter of last year.
Source: Xeneta
Trade lane performance
Looking at the performance of individual trade lanes, Europe to North America air spot rates rose 7% from a month ago to $1.77 per kg in August. In addition to a low comparison base, the increase in transatlantic rates could be a result of the surging transshipments originating from Asia, said Xeneta.
Southeast and northeast Asia to North America rates also increased 6% and 4% to $6.15 per kg and 4.68 per kg respectively.
In fact, inbound North America air cargo rates registered the largest increases from a month ago during what is usually considered to be the industry’s traditional slack season.
Europe to the Middle East and Central Asia rates rose 2% from a month ago to $ 1.58 per kg.
For the inbound Europe air cargo market from Asia and the Middle East, summer breaks and respite from Red Sea disruptions led to softened air cargo rates, down -1-2% month on month.
Inbound Northeast and Southeast Asia spot rates from North America and Europe experienced the largest decreases up to 4% from a month ago. This is mainly due to the increased trade imbalance between fronthaul and backhaul trades.
Dynamic load factor from Asia Pacific to both Europe and North America stood at 86% and 87% respectively in August. In contrast, their return legs were below 45% in the same period.
Source: Xeneta
The market appears to be well prepared for the peak season, with much capacity booked up in advance and shippers and forwarders warned about high spot rates, while shippers were last month warned about capacity shortages out of key Asian markets in particular.
However, aside from the assured demand out of Asia it remains to be seen just how busy the peak season will be.
According to van de Wouw, September will provide insight into what the fourth quarter will bring. “Let’s see if the peak surcharges some carriers plan to implement will hold,” he said.
“Freight forwarders are more prepared this year and, based on what we hear, are spending a lot of time with shippers on how to manage the unpredictable nature of these market conditions. We see financial and operational de-risking going on but, if the heat is on, let’s see what happens with all the contracts that are being negotiated.
“We’ve seen rates increasing throughout the summer, which is not typically the case. Q4 will be busy in terms of volumes, but how busy? E-commerce demand will play a big role and with 30% growth already this year ex-China and a reported 37 million new downloads of just the TEMU app in July, the indicators already suggest strong demand for capacity and this will impact the entire market on major corridors. “I said to a shipper last week if you are not already a little bit nervous, I would recommend you get a little bit nervous for Q4 when you look at all the signals out there.”
Van de Wouw added: “Especially out of Asia, we should not be surprised if the market really heats up again in Q4. We expect to see a seller’s market out of Asia and across the Atlantic due to the latter’s reduction in winter capacity. We’ve had a hot summer, and we may have an even hotter autumn ahead.”
