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Airlines warn of challenging winter as fuel costs and geopolitical risks mount

by Devender Grover

October 15, 2026

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Airlines are preparing for a difficult winter operating season as elevated fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty put pressure on profitability, with industry leaders warning that smaller and mid-sized carriers could face serious financial challenges. The concerns, reported by the Financial Times, come ahead of the first winter season since the outbreak of the Iran war. Higher fuel expenses, disrupted air routes and uncertainty over regional security are adding pressure to airline operating costs and forcing some carriers to reassess capacity. International Airlines Group (IAG) chief executive Luis Gallego warned that smaller operators could struggle to remain financially viable over the coming months. Speaking to the Financial Times, he said some medium-sized and smaller airlines could face severe difficulties, with some potentially disappearing from the market. Several carriers have already adjusted their plans in response to the difficult operating environment. Lufthansa has reportedly reduced capacity in its winter schedule, reflecting the pressure airlines face as they balance demand, costs and operational risk. Fuel expenditure has become a particular concern for US airlines. Figures attributed to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics in the supplied report put industry fuel spending at US$42.9 billion through August 2026, an increase of US$13.2 billion compared with the same period in 2025. Delta Air Lines has also reported a sharp rise in fuel expenses. According to the report, the carrier’s third-quarter fuel costs increased by 62% year on year, intensifying pressure on its financial outlook. Airline failures and regional disruption add to pressure The industry’s financial pressures have been compounded by the collapse of Spirit Airlines, which began winding down operations on 2 May 2026 after higher oil prices and other business pressures undermined its financial outlook.