The global air cargo industry is set to enter 2026 on a cautiously optimistic footing, with airlines expected to carry 71.6 million tonnes of freight during the year, according to the latest outlook from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The forecast reflects steady demand growth, ongoing shifts in global trade patterns and a parallel push by the industry to accelerate decarbonisation efforts.
Beyond cargo, IATA projects that airlines will transport 5.2 billion passengers in 2026, while achieving an average seat occupancy rate of 83.8%, underscoring continued recovery and efficiency gains across global networks. At the same time, the sector is expected to invest approximately USD 4.5 billion in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), positioning sustainability as a central pillar of airline strategy rather than a long-term aspiration.
The positive cargo outlook builds on strong momentum in late 2025. In October, global air cargo demand rose by 4.1% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth, according to IATA data. The expansion was driven primarily by robust traffic on intra-Asia routes, as well as Middle East–Europe and Europe–Asia trade lanes. In contrast, the Asia–North America corridor continued to face headwinds, reflecting the impact of US tariff measures and broader trade policy uncertainty.
Regional performance in October highlighted the increasingly uneven nature of global demand. African carriers recorded the strongest year-on-year growth at 16.6%, followed by Asia-Pacific airlines at 8.3% and Middle Eastern carriers at 5.7%. European airlines posted steady growth of 4.3%, while North American and Latin American carriers both saw declines of 2.7%, underlining ongoing realignments in global supply chains and trade flows.
“October’s performance shows how air cargo is enabling global supply chains to reconfigure in real time,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh. “That’s crucial as we enter the fourth-quarter peak season and prepare for a more fragmented demand environment in 2026.”
Fragmentation is expected to remain a defining theme in the year ahead. While demand continues to grow in aggregate, it is increasingly uneven across regions and trade lanes. Cost pressures also persist. In October, jet fuel prices rose by 2.5% despite a decline in crude oil prices, while the global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index remained only marginally above the growth threshold. Export order sentiment, meanwhile, continues to signal caution among manufacturers.
Against this backdrop, airlines are balancing capacity expansion with disciplined investment and sustainability commitments. In addition to the projected USD 4.5 billion investment in SAF, IATA’s broader 2026 objectives include USD 1.7 billion in climate financing and continued improvements in operational performance across passenger and cargo networks.
For cargo operators, the outlook points to a year that will demand flexibility and strategic alignment. As capacity increases and sustainability requirements become more concrete, airlines and logistics providers will need to adapt their networks, fleets and partnerships to a global trade environment that is more dynamic—and more complex—than in previous cycles.
