African countries account for 68% of projects and programmes associated with CORSIA-eligible carbon credits, according to Sylvera analysis, with Madagascar, Nigeria and Rwanda among the continent’s leading contributors
Africa is strengthening its position in the international carbon market, emerging as a major source of carbon credits that could be used by the global aviation industry to meet its climate compliance obligations under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).
New analysis from carbon data and ratings platform Sylvera reveals that African countries account for 17 of the 25 distinct projects and programmes globally associated with CORSIA-eligible credits, representing 68% of the total. The findings underline the continent’s growing importance in international carbon trading and its potential role in supporting aviation’s decarbonisation efforts.
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The development comes at a critical time for airlines, which face increasing pressure to secure sufficient quantities of verified and authorised carbon credits to meet their obligations under the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) global carbon offsetting framework.
CORSIA was established by ICAO to address the growth in international aviation emissions through the use of eligible emissions units. Airlines covered by the scheme must meet their calculated offsetting requirements by cancelling approved carbon credits for the relevant compliance period.
Africa strengthens its position in international carbon markets
Sylvera’s analysis highlights significant progress by African governments in establishing the regulatory frameworks required to participate in international carbon trading under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
Of the 124 bilateral Article 6.2 agreements and memoranda of understanding recorded globally, 34 involve African countries. Ghana leads the global ranking of seller countries by the number of such agreements, reflecting the continent’s expanding participation in international carbon market arrangements.
Africa’s position is also evident in the number of published Letters of Authorization (LoAs), which are essential for allowing carbon credits to be transferred internationally and used towards certain compliance obligations.
African countries account for 80 of the 119 published authorisations identified in the analysis. Madagascar leads globally with 44 authorisations, followed by Nigeria with nine and Rwanda with seven.
The figures represent a significant change from the Kyoto Protocol era, when Africa accounted for just over 2% of projects registered under the Clean Development Mechanism, the predecessor to the current international carbon market framework.
Airlines face potential shortage of eligible carbon credits
Despite the growth in Africa’s carbon market participation, the availability of credits that can actually be used for airline compliance remains a significant concern.
Sylvera estimates that airlines will require between 193 million and 220 million carbon credits to meet their obligations for CORSIA’s first phase, covering 2024–2026. However, only approximately 43 million credits have so far been tagged as CORSIA-eligible in carbon registries.
This represents just 19% to 22% of the anticipated requirement, highlighting a potential supply gap as airlines prepare for their compliance obligations.
Although hundreds of millions of additional carbon credits could potentially qualify, their availability for CORSIA depends on meeting further regulatory conditions. These include formal authorisation from host countries and accounting arrangements designed to prevent the same emissions reductions from being claimed by both the selling country and the purchasing airline.
Under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, corresponding adjustments are an important safeguard against double counting. Consequently, the existence of a carbon project or an issued credit does not automatically make it eligible for international transfer or CORSIA compliance.
Regulatory progress creates opportunities for African markets
Commenting on the findings, Carmen Alvarez Campo, International Policy Lead at Sylvera, said Africa was rapidly becoming one of the most important participants in international carbon markets.
She highlighted the efforts of African governments to establish regulatory frameworks capable of attracting investment and enabling the development of carbon credit projects.
Alvarez Campo noted that the combination of increasing airline offsetting obligations and limited confirmed eligible supply creates an opportunity for African countries to strengthen their position as suppliers to the international aviation market.
However, she emphasised that regulatory progress must translate into actual investment and credible carbon credit supply. Transparent reporting, robust emissions accounting and market confidence will be essential to achieving this objective.
COP31 puts international carbon markets in focus
The findings come ahead of the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31), scheduled to take place in Antalya, Türkiye, from 9 to 20 November 2026.
International carbon market implementation is expected to be an important area of discussion as governments consider how to strengthen cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and accelerate the development of credible carbon trading mechanisms.
For African countries, the conference presents an opportunity to highlight their progress in establishing authorisation frameworks while attracting investment into projects capable of generating internationally transferable emissions reductions.
Nevertheless, several challenges remain. These include strengthening national greenhouse gas inventories, improving emissions monitoring and reporting systems, and ensuring consistent accounting practices across participating countries.
Addressing these issues will be critical to converting regulatory readiness into commercially viable carbon projects and a dependable supply of eligible credits.
Aviation’s carbon market transition
Africa’s growing role in carbon markets could have important implications for the global aviation industry as airlines prepare for the financial and regulatory demands associated with CORSIA.
The continent’s expanding portfolio of authorised projects and international agreements provides a foundation for attracting climate finance, supporting emissions reduction initiatives and developing new revenue opportunities for participating countries.
However, the distinction between authorised projects, potentially eligible credits and credits fully approved for CORSIA compliance remains important. Regulatory authorisation alone does not guarantee that credits will become available to airlines.
The challenge ahead will be to develop a transparent, reliable and scalable supply chain for carbon credits while maintaining environmental integrity and ensuring that the benefits of carbon market investment reach participating communities.
As COP31 approaches, Africa’s emerging position in international carbon markets places the continent at the centre of an important discussion about how the aviation industry can meet its climate obligations while supporting credible global emissions reduction initiatives.
