The global air cargo market demonstrated notable resilience in 2025, overcoming trade policy disruptions and shifting demand patterns to deliver a year of recovery and stability, according to the latest outlook from Freightos. While regulatory changes initially dampened expectations, the sector adapted quickly, setting the stage for modest but steady growth in 2026.
Policy headwinds test early 2025 expectations
At the end of 2024, forecasts suggested global air cargo volumes would expand by more than five percent in 2025. However, sentiment shifted in the first half of the year following a series of policy developments in the United States. New tariffs introduced in April, followed by the suspension of the de minimis exemption for Chinese exports in May, raised concerns about a sharp slowdown in airfreight demand.
The de minimis rule had enabled low-value, business-to-consumer e-commerce shipments from China to enter the US with minimal duties, supporting high volumes of air cargo. Its removal led analysts to anticipate a significant drop in transpacific airfreight in the second half of the year.
Transpacific volumes rebound after initial decline
While air imports from China to the US did fall sharply on a month-on-month basis following the end of the de minimis exemption, the downturn proved short-lived. By July 2025, transpacific air cargo volumes had recovered to levels broadly in line with those seen in 2024.
This rebound was driven by the rapid adaptation of e-commerce platforms to the new regulatory environment, alongside continued growth in general cargo. Manufacturing centres outside China also played a critical role, with countries such as Vietnam recording strong increases in electronics exports, helping to stabilise and lift overall airfreight demand.
Asia–Europe and intra-Asia routes deliver strong growth
Although transpacific lanes did not achieve year-on-year growth in the second half of 2025, performance across other major trade corridors was considerably stronger. Asia–Europe routes and intra-Asia lanes recorded sustained growth throughout the year.
Exports from China to markets beyond the United States increased significantly, contributing to overall international air cargo volumes being approximately four percent higher through October 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. While this fell short of the double-digit growth recorded in 2024 during the height of the e-commerce boom, it underscored the industry’s ability to adjust and grow amid evolving trade dynamics.
Modest growth forecast for 2026
Looking ahead, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts global air cargo volumes to rise by around 2.6 percent in 2026. This outlook reflects expectations that the structural trends supporting demand in 2025—such as trade lane diversification and robust growth in non-US markets—will continue to underpin the sector in the year ahead.
Airfreight rates remain broadly stable
Despite fluctuations in demand across regions, air cargo pricing remained largely stable in 2025. Data from the Freightos Air Index shows that rates followed familiar seasonal patterns rather than experiencing significant volatility.
Prices rose after the Lunar New Year, held relatively steady through the summer months, and firmed again during the fourth-quarter peak season. Overall, average airfreight rates remained close to 2024 levels, even as volumes shifted between key trade lanes.
Capacity management balances supply and demand
Freightos attributed this pricing stability to the speed with which airlines adjusted capacity. As transpacific demand softened, carriers quickly withdrew capacity from those routes and redeployed aircraft to lanes showing stronger growth, particularly between Asia and Europe.
This flexibility in fleet and network management helped balance supply and demand, limiting both sharp price increases and steep rate declines, and reinforcing market stability.
Mixed rate trends across major lanes
On a lane-by-lane basis, airfreight rates from China to the United States and from China to Europe were slightly higher overall in 2025, rising by around one percent and two percent respectively compared with 2024. However, rates softened marginally in the second half of the year as capacity was rebalanced in response to changing trade flows.
In Southeast Asia, airfreight rates climbed notably in the first half of the year before easing later on, again reflecting carriers’ ability to reposition capacity as demand patterns evolved.
Policy changes loom on the horizon
The Freightos outlook also highlighted upcoming policy developments that could shape future air cargo flows. The European Union has signalled its intention to phase out its own de minimis exemptions by 2027, and potentially as early as 2026, while the United Kingdom has set a deadline of 2029.
While such changes could lead to short-term volume fluctuations on certain lanes, Freightos suggested that e-commerce is unlikely to disappear from airfreight altogether, even as regulatory frameworks tighten.
Entering 2026 on a stable footing
In summary, air cargo entered 2026 from a position of relative strength. The industry absorbed significant regulatory shocks in 2025, adapted quickly to shifting demand and trade patterns, and maintained stable pricing through proactive capacity management. With modest growth forecast for the year ahead, the market appears well positioned to build on the resilience demonstrated over the past 12 months.
