The closure of Middle Eastern airspace has caused a sharp contraction in global air cargo capacity, with early data from Rotate showing an 18% drop in overall lift, and around 13% of worldwide capacity directly impacted. The suspension of Gulf carriers and extensive flight rerouting is disrupting Asia–Europe cargo flows and reshaping intercontinental freight networks.
Rotate’s Live Capacity data indicates that the restrictions are directly affecting approximately 13% of global air cargo lift. Within 24 hours of the first major suspensions, total available capacity fell by 18% compared with the same period last week, highlighting both the immediate operational impact and the strategic role of the Middle East in global cargo logistics.
Tim van Leeuwen, Vice President and Head of Consulting at Rotate, noted: “The scale and impact of the US/Israel strikes on Iran are already evident. Middle East airspace closures have a significant effect on the air cargo industry, with 13 percent of global capacity directly affected. These disruptions underscore the structural importance of Gulf carriers in intercontinental freight flows.”
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Gulf Carriers Grounded
Major airlines including Qatar Airways, Emirates, and Etihad have temporarily suspended flights. Collectively, these carriers represent a substantial portion of long-haul belly capacity and freighter lift linking Asia, Europe, and Africa. Van Leeuwen highlighted that Qatar Airways operates roughly 12,000 tonnes of daily capacity, while Emirates provides around 10,000 tonnes per day. The temporary withdrawal of this lift has immediate consequences for cargo flows worldwide.
“Yesterday we reported that around 12% of global air cargo capacity would be directly impacted by Middle East airspace closures,” van Leeuwen said. “Within 24 hours, Rotate Live Capacity data shows an 18% decline in global capacity compared to last week.”
Three main factors are driving the capacity reduction:
- Middle Eastern carriers suspending all flights, at least temporarily
- Other carriers avoiding Gulf airspace, leaving no short-term alternatives
- Freighters rerouting to alternative technical stops or flying direct, impacting payload efficiency and network balance
Counterintuitive Network Shifts
While headline capacity has fallen, some sectors are seeing adjustments. Asia–Europe capacity has increased by 22%, as airlines switch technical stops to Central Asia or operate direct routes instead of routing via Gulf hubs. Although this mitigates part of the impact, it does not offset the broader network disruption caused by the closures.
The situation continues to evolve, with global air cargo operators closely monitoring Gulf operations and rerouting options to maintain supply chain continuity.
