Rates edge upwards +2% in June amid volatile markets
Average worldwide air cargo rates rose by +2% in June, month on month (MoM), taking them -1% below their level in June 2024, based on a full market average of spot rates and contract rates. Especially air cargo rates to the US from Asia Pacific countries other than China rose significantly in June, according to preliminary June figures from WorldACD Market Data, as markets continue to adjust to volatile US trade and tariff policies.
The charts contain latest views on air cargo market developments. – It covers each of the last 5 weeks up to Sunday, June 29, 2025.
Average full-market rates from Asia Pacific countries excluding China and Hong Kong to the US rebounded to US$5.19 per kilo in June, an increase of around +10% compared with the previous month and their level in June 2024. In contrast, tonnages from China and Hong Kong to the US in June were down by around -15% compared with their level in March, before the introduction of higher US tariffs, and around -11% below their level in June 2024. Average rates from China and Hong Kong to the US dropped to around $4.29 per kilo in June compared with $4.73 at the start of the year and $5.10 per kilo in June 2024, a fall of -16%, year on year (YoY), based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
In comparison, tonnages flown from China and Hong Kong to Europe have continued to rise, in June reaching their highest levels this year and taking them +15% higher than their level in June 2024. And average rates from China and Hong Kong to Europe were stable at $3.97 per kilo, similar to their level the previous month and their average level so far this year, but down -3% YoY.
On a global basis, worldwide flown air cargo tonnages in June were +2% higher than in June last year, although they fell by -4% compared with the previous month. Preliminary figures for the second quarter (Q2) of 2025 indicate that worldwide flown chargeable weight in the three months to 30 June was up by +4%, on both a year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis. To put this into perspective, in 2023 and 2024, the chargeable weight in the second quarter was in both years +3% higher than the first quarter. Average rates in Q2 2025 rose by +1%, QoQ, although they dropped by -1%, YoY. For the first six months of 2025, both rates and tonnages increased, YoY, with chargeable weight up by +3% and average freight rates +2% higher.
Volatile Asia Pacific to US markets
Further analysis by WorldACD of the first half of this year illustrates some of the very different dynamics for Asia Pacific to US markets compared with Asia Pacific to Europe markets, particularly for traffic from China and Hong Kong. Although US and European market patterns were broadly similar in the first quarter, rapidly changing US trade and tariff policies led to strongly different market patterns in the second quarter. For example, in the two months from week 15 to week 24, flown chargeable weight from China and Hong Kong to the US fell by -17%, whereas tonnage from China and Hong Kong to Europe rose by +6% in that period. At the same time, chargeable weight from Asia Pacific countries excluding China and Hong Kong to the US rose by +13%.
These patterns reflect a number of factors, including the diversion of capacity and air cargo volumes from China-US markets to China-Europe and other markets, particularly for e-commerce markets most affected by changes to ‘de minimis’ rules. It also includes various attempts to front-load shipments to beat the various tariff deadlines. The next major US tariff deadline is 9 July, when a 90-day pause on the latest US tariffs is due to expire for many countries.
Another big difference is the distribution between spot rates versus contract rates for general cargo. For the Asia Pacific to Europe market, the proportion of spot market transactions has remained relatively steady this year, varying between 43% in January and 49% in March, and levelling out at 47% in May and June 2025. But for the Asia Pacific to the US market, the share of spot rates surged to 75% and 73% in May and June, respectively, compared with an average of around 55% in the first four months of this year and an average of around 50% in May and June last year.
Disparity between contract and spot rates
That surge in the market share of spot rates for the Asia Pacific to US market reflects an increasing disparity between the level of contract rates and spot rates, as carriers have struggled to accurately match capacity with demand in what has been a highly volatile market because of the rapidly changing tariff landscape and the end of ‘de minimis’ exemptions for US imports of goods from China and Hong Kong. Whereas spot rates and contract rates had been more or less aligned at the start of the year, by June, average contract rates of US$5.28 per kilo stood around +13% higher than average spot rates of $4.66 per kilo.
