Despite short term uncertainties, in the long-term, passenger traffic will grow by 3.6% annually, driven by global GDP (+2.5%), urban populations (+1.2 billion) and an increase of 1.5 billion in the global middle class who represent the demographic most likely to fly. This growth requires a need for around 43,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years. Some 34,250 will be typically single aisle and 9,170 will be typically widebodies. Around 44% of these new deliveries (18,930) will replace less fuel efficient previous generation models.
A key benefit of aviation is to connect people and enable commerce, even in times of uncertainties, not only domestically but further afield. This is leading to some emerging flows and evolving markets. Overall, domestic India traffic growth (+8.9%) is the world’s highest, followed by emerging Asia to China (+8.5%) and Middle East with emerging Asia (5.3%). These evolving markets and new city pairings are being served by Airbus’ full range of aircraft. As these routes grow in passenger volume, the size of aircraft will follow. This upsizing is a clear Airbus advantage where commonality between the A320, A330 and A350 families means airlines can operate mixed single aisle and widebody fleet using crews with multi type ratings.
A doubling in the global in-service fleet above 49,000 aircraft by 2044 will generate a need for new pilots, technicians, cabin crews and create careers throughout the aviation eco-system. Huge opportunities will exist in aircraft maintenance and efficient operations as part of the sector’s sustainability drive. Airbus Customer Services is well positioned to offer state of the art solutions for this as well as in predictive maintenance to optimise availability and avoid flight disruptions as well as reducing fuel needs. End to end supply chain management, as spare parts availability is a key focus, and the growing availability of USM (Used Serviceable Material) are offering cost-effective solutions to improve fleet availability. Customer Services is also well positioned to provide connectivity on aircraft to boost operational efficiency and passenger experience, as well as improving the recyclability of aircraft.
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