Strong demand for semiconductors and data-transmission equipment is supporting global merchandise trade, while Asia leads regional growth, according to the latest DHL Globalization Tracker.
The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure is emerging as a major driver of global trade, helping sustain the movement of goods despite higher tariffs and geopolitical disruption, according to the latest DHL Globalization Tracker, produced by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business.
Demand for semiconductors, networking equipment and other products used to build AI infrastructure has supported international trade growth, with implications for air cargo as manufacturers and technology companies move high-value components through global supply chains.
The report, released on 7 October 2026, found that trade in AI-enabling goods accounted for 42% of global goods trade growth in 2025. That share increased to 76% in the first quarter of 2026, based on analysis by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year over the previous 15 years, with the exception of the exceptional rebound following the Covid-19 pandemic.
John Pearson, chief executive of DHL Express, said AI was currently a more significant driver of global trade than tariffs. He noted that the technology depends on complex international supply chains to move chips, networking equipment and other essential components to where they are needed.
For the air cargo industry, the findings highlight the importance of reliable capacity and connectivity for technology-related shipments. Earlier analysis by logistics provider Dimerco also pointed to AI and semiconductor shipments as major consumers of air cargo capacity out of Southeast Asia.
Asia leads regional trade growth
East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest regional trade growth, with the value of trade increasing 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. Europe followed with growth of 12%, while Sub-Saharan Africa recorded an 11% increase.
Trade within East Asia and the Pacific also became more concentrated regionally. The share of the region’s trade conducted within the region rose from 57% in 2025 to 60% during the first five months of 2026. The report linked this increase partly to Asian supply chains serving growing demand for AI-related products.
The figures underline the region’s importance in the production and movement of technology goods, including semiconductors and data-transmission equipment. These supply chains depend on the movement of components between manufacturing centres and markets, creating demand for international freight services.
Middle East disruption has a concentrated impact
Although the AI boom has supported global trade, geopolitical developments continue to disrupt individual markets and transport routes.
The conflict involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affected important supply chains and contributed to interruptions in regional air cargo operations. According to the Tracker, the wider trade impact remained concentrated in economies particularly dependent on the Strait.
The value of trade in Saudi Arabia fell 37% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, while the United Arab Emirates recorded a 7% decline.
The findings illustrate how global trade can continue to expand even as specific markets and transport corridors face significant disruption. For cargo operators, however, the resilience of global trade does not remove the operational challenges associated with flight suspensions, rerouting and changes in available capacity.
Tariffs have not halted global trade
US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but the Tracker found their overall impact on global trade had remained limited. The United States accounted for approximately 13% of world imports in recent years, while around half of US imports were exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026.
Most countries also refrained from broad retaliation. Instead, many sought to widen access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.
The report’s findings suggest that businesses and trading partners have continued to adapt to policy changes rather than withdrawing broadly from international commerce. However, the effects of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty remain uneven across countries, industries and trade routes.
Trade outlook strengthens through 2029
The outlook for global goods trade has improved, with the Tracker projecting average annual growth of 3.4% through 2029. This compares with an average rate of 2.7% over the previous decade.
Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, said the stronger outlook reflected the underlying drivers of trade and the ability of companies to adapt to disruption and changing trade policies.
The report concludes that demand for goods and services requiring specialised production across multiple countries remains a significant force supporting international commerce.
For the air cargo sector, the expansion of AI infrastructure presents an important source of demand for the movement of semiconductors, networking equipment and related technology products. At the same time, regional conflicts, tariffs and supply-chain shifts continue to make capacity planning and network flexibility critical to serving global markets.
