Global air cargo markets showed signs of stabilisation in late January 2026, as demand and freight rates recovered from the traditional year-end slowdown and entered a period of moderate growth ahead of seasonal peaks in Asia and global perishables shipments.
According to the latest weekly analysis from WorldACD Market Data, global cargo volumes and pricing trends began to steady during the fourth week of the year (19–25 January 2026), supported by rising exports from Asia-Pacific ahead of the Lunar New Year and a surge in flower shipments in preparation for Valentine’s Day on 14 February.
However, severe winter weather disruptions across North America and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East tempered overall market momentum, while global capacity growth continued to outpace demand on a year-on-year basis.
Modest Global Volume Growth
Worldwide chargeable weight increased 1 percent week-on-week (WoW) in week four, reflecting a continued rebound from the early-January trough typical of post-holiday freight cycles.
The improvement was driven primarily by Asia-Pacific markets, where outbound volumes rose 2 percent WoW, supported by manufacturers accelerating shipments ahead of factory closures for Lunar New Year celebrations.
Another notable contributor was Central and South America, where volumes jumped 10 percent WoW, largely due to strong demand for flower exports destined for Valentine’s Day markets in North America and Europe. Kenya also recorded heightened floral cargo activity during the period.
Despite these gains, global volume growth was partially offset by a 9 percent WoW decline in cargo traffic originating in North America, where severe winter storms caused widespread operational disruptions.
Storms Disrupt North American Operations
Extreme winter weather across the United States and Canada forced thousands of flight cancellations, significantly affecting cargo flows across several key regions.
According to WorldACD’s dataset—based on more than 500,000 weekly freight transactions—air cargo tonnages declined sharply across multiple North American origin markets during the week.
The largest drops were recorded in:
- The US Northeast, where volumes fell 17 percent WoW
- The US Midwest, down 14 percent WoW
- The US South, down 19 percent WoW
- Western Canada, which saw a 15 percent WoW decline
The disruption not only reduced outbound volumes but also contributed to delays and temporary imbalances in cargo capacity across transpacific and transatlantic routes.
Capacity Growth Pressures Freight Rates
Despite short-term disruptions, global air cargo demand remains higher than the same period last year.
Total tonnage during week four stood 3 percent above year-on-year (YoY) levels, indicating continued underlying demand growth across international freight markets.
However, the increase in supply has been even stronger. Global cargo capacity expanded 6 percent YoY, placing downward pressure on rates despite the recovery in volumes.
Average worldwide freight rates rose 2 percent WoW to US$2.43 per kilogram, reflecting gradual recovery from the early-January low point. Yet compared with the same period in 2025, rates remain 1 percent lower, highlighting the continuing influence of expanded capacity across global networks.
Asia-Pacific Prepares for Lunar New Year Surge
The Asia-Pacific region remains the central driver of early-2026 cargo flows.
Following two weeks of strong recovery, volumes from Asia to both the United States and Europe stabilised in week four, recording flat WoW growth on both trade lanes.
Compared with the previous year, traffic patterns diverged between the two markets:
- Shipments to the United States were 1 percent lower YoY
- Shipments to Europe were 7 percent higher YoY
Spot rates showed modest weekly improvements across both corridors. Rates from Asia-Pacific origins increased 2 percent WoW to the United States and 3 percent WoW to Europe, although both remained 9 percent below last year’s levels.
Within the region, the most significant rate increases were recorded from Chinese export markets. Spot rates from China to the US rose 6 percent WoW to US$4.02 per kg, while rates to Europe climbed 7 percent to US$3.80 per kg.
Freight forwarders report that demand is strengthening particularly in southern China, where exporters are accelerating shipments ahead of Lunar New Year factory closures. In contrast, northern China markets have so far shown fewer signs of a pronounced pre-holiday shipping peak.
Capacity Constraints on Transpacific Routes
Flight disruptions in North America have also tightened available capacity on certain Asia-to-US routes.
Reduced inbound capacity and temporary backlogs have added pressure to available space, particularly from export hubs in southern China, Vietnam and Taiwan. With Lunar New Year approaching on 17 February, analysts expect the combination of growing demand and constrained lift to push spot rates higher in early February.
MESA Region Continues Strong Growth
Another key contributor to global air cargo demand in recent months has been the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region.
Since mid-2025, the region has recorded consistent year-on-year growth in cargo volumes, and the trend has continued into 2026. In week four, outbound tonnage from MESA markets increased 10 percent YoY.
Shipments to the United States rose 11 percent YoY, while volumes bound for Europe increased 7 percent YoY.
Within the region, India remains the largest origin market. Despite higher tariffs imposed by the United States in the second half of 2025, Indian exports to the US continued to expand strongly.
Cargo volumes from India to the US increased 15 percent YoY in week four, extending the strong growth momentum recorded during the final months of 2025.
Outlook for February
With seasonal demand drivers—including Lunar New Year shipments and global Valentine’s Day flower exports—continuing to support volumes, the global air cargo market is expected to see moderate upward pressure on rates during the first half of February.
However, analysts caution that the ongoing imbalance between demand and expanding capacity could limit sustained rate increases unless cargo volumes accelerate further in the coming weeks.
