Global airfreight rates fell sharply in the first week of January as the market entered its traditional post-peak slowdown, with the steepest declines recorded across key Asian export hubs, according to the latest data from TAC Index.
The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) dropped 14.1 percent week-on-week in the week to January 5, reflecting the abrupt easing in demand following the year-end holiday rush. On an annual comparison, the index is now 11.4 percent lower year-on-year, underlining the extent to which the post-peak correction has gathered pace.
Asia: sharp corrections from China, pockets of resilience elsewhere
Rates out of Asia were the primary drag on the global index, with significant week-on-week declines across most major origin markets. From Hong Kong, spot and forward rates weakened steadily throughout the week on both Europe- and US-bound lanes. The comprehensive index of outbound routes from Hong Kong (BAI30) fell 12.8 percent week-on-week, leaving rates 3.9 percent below their level a year earlier.
The correction was even more pronounced in Shanghai, where the outbound index (BAI80) plunged 19.9 percent week-on-week, pushing rates 6.1 percent lower year-on-year. The declines reflect the sharp drop in volumes following the end of the peak season, particularly on China–Europe and China–US corridors.
Elsewhere in Asia, rate movements were broadly negative and generally lower than last year. Exports from Vietnam, India and Seoul to both Europe and the United States all recorded week-on-week declines, reinforcing the region-wide softening in demand.
However, there were notable exceptions. Bangkok–Europe rates edged higher on a weekly basis, while Taiwan continued to stand out as a rare growth market. Rates from Taiwan increased both week-on-week and year-on-year, supported by sustained demand for semiconductor and high-tech shipments, which have remained resilient despite the broader market slowdown.
Europe: mixed signals as transatlantic rates retreat
European export markets delivered a more mixed performance. After several weeks of upward momentum, rates on transatlantic lanes to the United States finally eased, while prices to China and Japan were also marginally lower.
In contrast, rates strengthened on a number of secondary and emerging trade lanes, including services from Europe to Australia, Brazil, Mexico, India and the UAE, suggesting pockets of demand remain intact despite the overall seasonal downturn. Rates to South Africa declined week-on-week but continued to trade above year-ago levels.
The index of outbound routes from Frankfurt (BAI20) slipped 4.8 percent week-on-week and is now 25.3 percent lower year-on-year, highlighting the depth of the correction from last year’s elevated levels. London Heathrow (BAI40) saw a sharper weekly fall of 11.2 percent, leaving rates 15.3 percent down compared with the same period in 2025.
United States: broad-based weakness, led by Chicago
From the United States, most outbound lanes also recorded falling rates as post-holiday volumes softened. Declines were seen on services to Europe and South America, although rates to China and South Korea proved more resilient.
The index of outbound routes from Chicago (BAI50) fell 14.3 percent week-on-week, and now sits 33.9 percent below its level a year earlier, marking one of the steepest annual declines among major US gateways. Meanwhile, rates from Mexico to Europe edged slightly lower on the week but remained close to flat on a year-on-year basis.
Outlook
The sharp correction aligns with long-established seasonal patterns, as air cargo markets typically cool rapidly once the year-end peak subsides. However, the scale of the declines—particularly out of Asia—suggests carriers and forwarders may face continued pricing pressure in the near term, even as structurally strong sectors such as semiconductors provide selective support.
