Global airfreight rates declined sharply in the first week of the New Year, reflecting the traditional post-peak slowdown in volumes following the end of the holiday shipping season, according to the latest data from TAC Index.
The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) fell by 14.1% in the week to 5 January, leaving rates 11.4% lower year on year. The downturn marks a clear reversal from the elevated pricing seen at the end of 2025, when strong peak-season demand drove air cargo rates higher across key east–west trade lanes.
Asia-origin rates slide as peak season ends
The most pronounced declines were recorded on outbound routes from Asia, particularly China. TAC Index reported that spot rates from Hong Kong weakened day by day on services to both Europe and the United States, as demand softened rapidly after the peak season.
The Hong Kong outbound index (BAI30)—which reflects a broad mix of spot and forward rates—fell 12.8% week on week and was 3.9% lower year on year. Similarly, Shanghai outbound rates (BAI80) experienced a steep correction, plunging 19.9% week on week, although they remain 6.1% lower compared with the same period last year.
Elsewhere in Asia, the general trend was also downward. Rates from Vietnam, India, and Seoul declined on routes to both Europe and the US and were mostly lower on a year-on-year basis.
However, there were notable exceptions. Rates from Bangkok to Europe registered a week-on-week jump, while Taiwan-origin lanes continued to outperform the wider market. Prices from Taiwan rose week on week and remain higher year on year on services to both Europe and the US, underpinned by sustained global demand for semiconductors and high-tech components.
Mixed performance out of Europe
Outbound European airfreight markets showed a more mixed pattern. Following several weeks of gains, rates eased on transatlantic routes to the United States and also edged lower on services to China and Japan, TAC Index said.
In contrast, rates strengthened on European lanes to Australia, Brazil, Mexico, India, and the UAE, highlighting uneven demand patterns across global trade corridors. Prices to South Africa fell week on week but remained ahead of last year’s levels.
The Frankfurt outbound index (BAI20) slipped 4.8% week on week, yet remains significantly depressed, standing 25.3% lower year on year. Meanwhile, London Heathrow outbound rates (BAI40) declined 11.2% week on week, leaving the index 15.3% below last year’s levels.
US export rates also under pressure
From the United States, airfreight rates were mostly lower, particularly on routes to Europe and South America. By contrast, pricing held firmer on services to China and South Korea, suggesting relatively stable demand on those lanes.
The Chicago outbound index (BAI50) dropped 14.3% week on week and now sits 33.9% below year-ago levels, underlining the extent of the post-peak correction. Rates from Mexico to Europe also edged down slightly week on week but remain broadly flat compared with the same period last year.
Outlook
The latest data underscores a familiar seasonal pattern in the air cargo market, with volumes and rates retreating sharply after the year-end peak. While most major lanes are experiencing downward pressure, resilient demand from high-tech sectors—particularly semiconductors—continues to provide pockets of strength, notably from Taiwan. Market participants will be closely watching whether rates stabilise later in the quarter as supply-demand balances reset.
