Air cargo demand across the Asia-Pacific region continued to grow in August, but at a markedly slower pace, with weaker e-commerce shipments to Europe partly offset by sustained demand for technology and artificial-intelligence-related goods.
Preliminary August traffic figures from the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) show that international air cargo demand, measured in freight tonne kilometres (FTK), increased 1.1% year on year. At the same time, available freight capacity grew by 1.6%, resulting in a 0.3-percentage-point decline in the average international freight load factor to 59.3%.
The August figures point to a continued moderation in cargo growth after a stronger first half of the year. Demand increased by 3.2% in June and 1.1% in July, compared with 2.5% in May and 4.1% in April.
Related Post
E-commerce faces new European headwinds
AAPA said air cargo markets continued to benefit from rising export activity and strong demand for AI-related goods. However, e-commerce shipments to Europe weakened following the introduction of charges on small parcels.
The change follows the European Union’s decision to end the previous €150 customs-duty exemption for low-value imported goods, with the new arrangements taking effect from July 1, 2026.
For Asia-Pacific carriers, the development represents an important change for a segment that has been a significant contributor to air cargo growth. The August AAPA figures suggest that the impact is beginning to be reflected in traffic patterns, although the association did not quantify the decline in e-commerce volumes separately.
AI-related cargo continues to support demand
Despite the softer e-commerce environment, technology-related shipments continue to provide support for the regional air cargo market.
AAPA attributed part of August’s performance to brisk demand for AI-related goods, alongside continuing export activity from major Asian manufacturing centres. This follows strong technology-sector demand reported earlier in the year, when shipments of semiconductors and AI-related hardware were identified as important contributors to cargo growth.
The continued movement of high-value technology products highlights the differing performance of cargo segments across the region. Consumer-oriented e-commerce shipments to Europe have encountered new regulatory and cost pressures, while technology supply chains remain an important source of airfreight demand.
Capacity growth outpaces demand
The 1.6% increase in offered freight capacity in August was faster than the 1.1% growth in demand.
As a result, the average international freight load factor for Asia-Pacific carriers declined to 59.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from August 2025. The change indicates that capacity growth is currently running slightly ahead of cargo demand.
The development follows a similar pattern in July, when AAPA reported a 1.1% year-on-year increase in cargo demand against 1.8% growth in available freight capacity. The average freight load factor fell by 0.4 percentage points to 61.3%.
Year-to-date growth remains substantial
Despite the slowdown in monthly growth, the broader 2026 picture remains considerably stronger.
AAPA Director General Wong Hong said international air cargo demand increased by 5.5% during the first eight months of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.
The figure demonstrates that the recent moderation has not erased the strong gains recorded earlier in the year. It does, however, indicate that the pace of expansion has become less consistent as the market moves into the second half of 2026.
The July data had shown a 6.2% year-on-year increase in international cargo demand for the first seven months of the year, meaning August’s relatively modest monthly increase brought the cumulative growth rate down to 5.5%.
Airlines face rising operating costs
While cargo demand remains positive, Asia-Pacific airlines are also dealing with a challenging operating environment.
Wong said elevated jet fuel prices, airspace restrictions and weaker Asian currencies were increasing costs and creating pressure on airline profitability. Geopolitical developments and changes in trade policy are adding further uncertainty to the outlook.
The cost environment is particularly relevant for carriers operating long-haul networks. Airspace restrictions associated with the Middle East conflict have required airlines to adjust some operations, while higher fuel costs continue to affect network economics.
IATA’s latest global air cargo data provides additional context. In July, Asia-Pacific carriers recorded 4.1% year-on-year growth in cargo demand, according to IATA, while capacity increased 3.0%. The region accounted for 35.8% of global industry cargo tonne-kilometres in 2025.
Peak season could provide further support
Looking ahead, AAPA expects regional economic activity and trade flows to continue supporting air cargo demand, although growth is likely to remain uneven between markets.
The association’s outlook leaves open the possibility of stronger volumes during the traditional peak season, particularly if export activity remains resilient and demand for technology products continues.
At the same time, the European e-commerce market will be closely watched following the changes to low-value parcel treatment. The combination of regulatory changes, capacity growth, fuel costs and geopolitical disruption means that the final months of 2026 are likely to produce a more differentiated performance across Asia-Pacific trade lanes and cargo segments.
For carriers, freight forwarders and shippers, the August figures therefore point to a market that is still expanding, but with the exceptional growth rates seen earlier in the year becoming harder to sustain.
