Low-value e-commerce shipments from China to Europe dropped by 50% year on year in September, as new customs charges add pressure on direct-to-consumer parcel flows.
Air cargo volumes linked to low-value e-commerce shipments from China to the European Union continued to weaken in September, with a further customs charge scheduled to take effect in November expected to add pressure on cross-border parcel trade.
Data from air cargo consultancy Aevean show that low-value e-commerce air cargo volumes moving from China to the EU fell by 50% year on year in September. The decline contributed to a 4% contraction in China’s total low-value e-commerce air exports over the first nine months of 2026. Across all destinations, volumes were down 19% year on year in September.
Europe recorded the steepest decline among the major markets tracked by Aevean. Shipments from China to the rest of the Asia-Pacific region fell by 5% in September, while volumes to North America declined by 4%. Exports to the Middle East and South Asia dropped by 13%.
Aevean managing director Marco Bloemen attributed the sharp decline in Europe-bound traffic partly to the EU’s introduction of a temporary €3 customs duty per item category on low-value consignments worth up to €150, effective from 1 July 2026. The measure removed the previous customs duty exemption for eligible low-value imports.
A further EU-wide handling fee of €2 per declaration line is expected to apply from 1 November, adding to the cost of shipping individual orders directly to European consumers. The fee is separate from the customs duty and is intended to help cover the costs associated with processing e-commerce imports.
Direct shipping faces a higher cost burden
Dutch advisory firm Holdwise has highlighted the potential cost difference between shipping individual orders directly from China and fulfilling orders from inventory already held in the Netherlands.
In its comparison of a parcel containing a T-shirt and a watch, Holdwise estimated that direct delivery from China would cost approximately €19.50 per order. Its calculation includes €6 in customs duty, €4 in handling charges, €7 for postage and customs clearance, and €2.50 for storage and packing.
By comparison, the firm estimated a cost of €10 per order when the goods are dispatched from stock in the Netherlands. The breakdown includes €2 in standard duty, €0.50 for sea freight and clearance, €2.50 for storage and packing, and €5 for delivery within the EU.
The comparison suggests that holding inventory within the EU could offer an economic advantage for some e-commerce sellers, although actual costs will vary according to product classification, shipment arrangements, fulfilment volumes and other applicable charges.
Dutch customs data points to a shift in import patterns
The decline in parcel declarations is also evident in Dutch customs statistics. Dutch Customs reported that the number of declaration lines for e-commerce goods fell by approximately 70% in August and September compared with the same months in 2025.
The authority also reported a 43% increase in declaration lines processed through the regular customs declaration system over the same period. The contrasting trends suggest that some businesses may be moving away from individual parcel imports towards consolidated shipments, although the figures alone do not establish the extent of that shift.
For air cargo operators, freight forwarders and e-commerce logistics providers, the changes point to continued adjustment in the structure of China–Europe trade. Higher per-item costs could encourage sellers to consolidate imports, move inventory closer to European customers or reassess the economics of direct cross-border fulfilment.
With the additional handling fee approaching, the impact on air cargo demand will depend in part on how quickly e-commerce platforms and sellers adapt their sourcing, inventory and distribution strategies.
