- Air cargo volumes from China and Hong Kong to Europe continued to weaken in late July, with WorldACD reporting a 5% weekly decline from China and a 3% fall from Hong Kong in the week ending 2 August.
- The slowdown comes after the EU abolished its €150 customs-duty exemption for low-value imports on 1 July and introduced a temporary €3 customs duty per item, adding a new cost consideration for the heavily e-commerce-driven Asia-Europe air cargo market.
- Spot rates from China and Hong Kong to Europe have also fallen sharply from their June peaks, narrowing the premium over last year’s levels even as rates from other Asian markets remain significantly higher year on year.
China-Europe air cargo market loses momentum after EU e-commerce rule change
Air cargo demand on the major China-Europe e-commerce corridor is showing further signs of weakening following the European Union’s introduction of stricter customs rules for low-value imports.
Data from market intelligence provider WorldACD, cited in its latest market review, indicate that volumes from China to Europe fell by 5% in the week ending 2 August, while shipments originating in Hong Kong declined by 3% compared with the previous week.
The deterioration has been particularly pronounced in the Hong Kong market, where e-commerce accounts for a substantial share of outbound air cargo.
According to WorldACD’s figures, July volumes from Hong Kong to Europe were 19% lower than in June and 24% below the level recorded a year earlier.
China-Europe flows proved somewhat more resilient, but also weakened. Volumes from China to Europe in July were down 3% from June and 6% year on year, according to the data provider.
The figures point to a significant change in momentum across one of the world’s most important air freight markets.
The weakness follows the implementation of a major change to EU import rules on 1 July, when the bloc ended the customs-duty exemption previously available for goods valued at €150 or less.
EU introduces €3 duty on low-value e-commerce imports
The regulatory change has fundamentally altered the economics of low-value e-commerce shipments entering the European Union.
Until 30 June, goods imported from outside the EU with an intrinsic value of €150 or less could enter without customs duty, subject to the applicable VAT and customs procedures.
From 1 July 2026, that exemption was removed.
The EU introduced a temporary €3 customs duty per item for distance-sale goods in consignments with an intrinsic value not exceeding €150. The measure is scheduled to remain in place until 1 July 2028, when the EU Customs Data Hub is planned to become operational under the wider customs reform programme.
The European Commission describes the measure as an interim response to the enormous growth in low-value e-commerce imports and the pressure that volume has placed on customs authorities and European businesses.
The timing is significant for air cargo because China has become the dominant source of low-value e-commerce imports into the EU.
The European Commission estimates that 5.88 billion low-value consignments entered the EU in 2025, representing almost 98% of imported items by number. China accounted for approximately 93% of the volume.
E-commerce economics face a new calculation
The €3 charge may appear modest when applied to an individual parcel, but its impact can become much more significant when multiplied across millions of low-value items.
For e-commerce sellers, platforms, consolidators and logistics providers, the change introduces another cost into a business model that has traditionally relied on high shipment volumes and relatively low individual product values.
The new duty also increases the importance of shipment consolidation, customs data accuracy and supply-chain planning.
For air cargo operators, the consequences can extend beyond customs costs.
Changes in e-commerce purchasing patterns can influence shipment volumes, routing decisions, inventory positioning and the balance between direct air freight and alternative transport modes.
The latest WorldACD figures suggest that market participants are already adjusting to a changed environment.
Hong Kong emerges as the most exposed market
The decline from Hong Kong is particularly striking.
WorldACD’s data show e-commerce-driven Hong Kong-Europe volumes falling 19% in July compared with June, while remaining 24% below July 2025.
The market’s exposure to cross-border e-commerce makes it particularly sensitive to changes in the regulatory and cost environment.
Hong Kong has long served as a major consolidation and export hub for Asian e-commerce traffic, linking manufacturers, trading companies, platforms and logistics providers with European consumers.
A sustained reduction in those flows could therefore have implications beyond Hong Kong itself, affecting capacity utilisation, transshipment patterns and freight rates across the wider Asia-Europe air cargo market.
China flows also weaken, but at a slower pace
China-Europe cargo has been more resilient than Hong Kong traffic, but the latest figures nevertheless point to a cooling market.
July volumes were 3% below June and 6% below the previous year, according to WorldACD.
The distinction is important because China’s air cargo market is much broader than e-commerce.
Industrial goods, electronics, automotive components, pharmaceuticals and other high-value commodities also contribute to China-Europe air freight demand.
As a result, the impact of the EU’s low-value e-commerce measures is likely to be more concentrated within particular shipment segments rather than affecting the entire China-Europe cargo market equally.
The decline in volumes should therefore be viewed alongside wider economic, capacity and trade-flow factors.
Spot rates fall sharply from June peaks
The slowdown is also being reflected in air freight pricing.
WorldACD reported that spot rates from both China and Hong Kong to Europe have been declining persistently over the six weeks covered by its latest market review.
From Hong Kong, the average spot rate fell from approximately $5.80 per kg in mid-to-late June to $4.96 per kg in week 31.
The decline from China was even more pronounced.
Average China-Europe spot rates fell from approximately $5.43 per kg in week 25 to $3.86 per kg in week 31.
That represents a substantial correction from the elevated levels seen earlier in the summer.
Nevertheless, rates remain above last year’s levels.
In week 31, China-Europe spot rates were approximately 2% higher year on year, while Hong Kong-Europe rates remained 7% above 2025.
The premium, however, has narrowed dramatically.
According to WorldACD, the difference compared with the previous year had been around 25% during the preceding three months, highlighting the speed of the recent rate correction.
Asia-Pacific remains expensive overall
The weakness on China and Hong Kong routes does not mean that the entire Asia-Europe air cargo market has returned to normal pricing.
Spot rates from several other Asia-Pacific origins remain substantially above last year’s levels.
WorldACD reported particularly strong year-on-year increases from:
- Taiwan: +33%
- Vietnam: +39%
- Thailand: +32%
The divergence suggests that capacity and demand conditions remain highly uneven across Asia.
While China and Hong Kong have experienced a notable correction, other export markets continue to face stronger demand and relatively tight capacity.
As a result, the overall Asia-Pacific-Europe spot-rate increase has narrowed but remains substantial.
WorldACD calculated that the average increase across the region fell from 39% year on year in week 25 to 17% in week 31.
The regulatory change arrives in a massive e-commerce market
The EU’s decision needs to be understood against the extraordinary growth of low-value imports.
European Commission data show that the number of low-value consignments increased by 75% between 2022 and 2023, then almost doubled between 2023 and 2024. By the end of 2025, the volume had reached nearly 5.9 billion items.
The sheer number of shipments has created growing challenges for customs authorities.
Although low-value consignments account for the overwhelming majority of imported items by number, their share of total import value is relatively small. The European Commission estimates that low-value consignments represented around 97.9% of imported items in the first half of 2025 but only 2.1% of total import value.
China’s dominance is equally clear.
Approximately 93% of low-value import items entering the EU originated in China in the Commission’s latest data.
That concentration explains why changes in European e-commerce rules can have such a pronounced effect on China-Europe logistics flows.
Air cargo faces a changing e-commerce model
For the air freight industry, the question is whether the recent decline represents a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a structural shift.
E-commerce has been one of the strongest sources of incremental air cargo demand in recent years, particularly on Asia-Europe routes.
The sector’s growth has encouraged the development of dedicated charter operations, freighter capacity, cross-border parcel networks and specialised handling infrastructure.
A significant change in the cost of importing low-value products could alter the way online sellers structure their European supply chains.
Some may absorb the additional duty. Others could increase product prices, consolidate shipments, change fulfilment locations or modify the range of products offered to European customers.
The effect on air cargo will depend on how quickly sellers and logistics providers adapt.
Customs data becomes increasingly important
The new EU rules also increase the importance of accurate shipment data.
The European Commission has introduced additional requirements surrounding import declarations and VAT procedures alongside the new duty. From 1 November 2026, product identifiers will also become mandatory for relevant import distance sales.
This will place additional pressure on e-commerce platforms, customs brokers, freight forwarders and logistics providers to ensure that shipment information is complete and correctly transmitted.
For the air cargo sector, digital customs compliance is becoming inseparable from physical cargo movement.
The ability to process large numbers of individual shipments accurately and rapidly will be essential if the industry is to maintain the speed that has made air freight attractive to cross-border e-commerce.
What happens next for China-Europe air cargo?
The latest market data provide an early indication of how the air freight market is responding to the EU’s new low-value import regime.
China-Europe and Hong Kong-Europe volumes have weakened, while spot rates have fallen sharply from their June levels.
However, it would be premature to attribute the entire decline to the customs change alone.
Air cargo markets are influenced by multiple variables, including seasonal demand, capacity deployment, inventory cycles, trade conditions, fuel costs and geopolitical developments.
The fact that rates from Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand remain substantially above last year’s levels demonstrates that the broader Asia-Europe market remains firm in several corridors.
The more important development may therefore be the divergence between e-commerce-heavy markets and other Asian export origins.
Hong Kong, in particular, appears to be experiencing a significant adjustment. China is also weakening, although at a slower rate, while other Asian markets continue to command substantial rate premiums.
A new phase for European e-commerce logistics
The EU’s new customs regime marks a major change for the European e-commerce supply chain.
The removal of the €150 duty exemption and introduction of the €3 temporary duty are intended to address the extraordinary growth in low-value imports while supporting a transition towards the EU’s future customs data infrastructure.
For air cargo operators and logistics providers, the immediate impact is being seen in the market data: softer China and Hong Kong volumes and lower spot rates.
The longer-term impact could be more profound.
E-commerce logistics models built around millions of low-value shipments will have to adapt to higher import costs and increasingly sophisticated customs requirements.
For the air cargo industry, that could mean a period of restructuring as carriers, forwarders, platforms and shippers reassess routes, consolidation strategies and inventory locations.
The next few months will show whether the latest decline represents a short-term correction following the July rule change — or the beginning of a more lasting reset in the economics of the China-Europe e-commerce air freight corridor.
