The air cargo market is entering the post-Golden Week phase of the fourth-quarter peak season, but capacity pressure is expected to develop unevenly across Asian origins and cargo categories, according to freight forwarder C.H. Robinson.
China’s Golden Week holiday, which runs from October 1 to 7, has created a temporary slowdown in export activity. As factories reopen and cargo returns to the market from mid-October, the speed and concentration of that rebound will be critical in determining capacity and pricing conditions through the remainder of the fourth quarter.
Technology-related freight is expected to remain one of the strongest demand drivers, particularly on transpacific routes. Servers, semiconductor equipment, data-centre components and other high-value electronics continue to generate significant volumes, while new consumer-device launches are adding further time-sensitive shipments.
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General cargo is expected to build more gradually as manufacturers and retailers replenish inventories ahead of early Black Friday promotions, Cyber Monday and year-end demand. At the same time, e-commerce is expected to account for a smaller share of this year’s peak-season growth. Changes to tariff rules for low-value imports have reduced some e-commerce flows into the US, while Asia-Pacific-to-Europe volumes remain below last year’s levels, particularly on e-commerce-heavy routes.
Freighter allocation could reshape capacity
The concentration of demand in technology and time-sensitive cargo could have implications beyond the lanes experiencing the strongest growth.
Airlines typically respond to concentrated demand by adjusting aircraft deployment, schedules and capacity allocations towards markets with stronger booking activity. If additional freighter capacity is directed towards US-bound services, shippers moving cargo to Europe or within Asia could face fewer viable options even if underlying demand on those routes remains relatively stable.
Passenger belly capacity can accommodate a substantial share of general freight, but it cannot fully substitute for freighter capacity for every commodity. This distinction could become increasingly important for heavy, oversized or specialised shipments as peak-season demand builds.
Mid-October emerges as a key test
C.H. Robinson expects Asian-origin pricing to come under greater pressure from around mid-October, particularly on transpacific lanes with a high concentration of technology and new-product freight.
Asia-Pacific-to-US demand was already running 17% above the previous year in mid-September, with several technology-focused origins recording stronger gains. However, the forwarder stresses that market conditions will vary considerably by origin, depending on cargo mix, gateway demand, airline allocations and freighter schedules.
The result is likely to be a peak season characterised less by broad-based congestion and more by selective pressure at particular origins and departure points.
Weather and modal shifts add uncertainty
Typhoon activity remains another variable for the October outlook. Weather-related disruption can push cargo onto subsequent departures at a time when post-holiday volumes and fourth-quarter demand are already increasing, potentially creating localised booking constraints.
A further factor is the potential conversion of cargo from ocean to air if disruption in container shipping creates urgent demand for alternative transport. C.H. Robinson identifies a stronger-than-expected post-Golden Week rebound, additional storm disruption or increased ocean-to-air conversion as factors that could tighten capacity more quickly, particularly on technology-heavy transpacific routes.
However, if general cargo volumes remain moderate and post-holiday demand is concentrated primarily in technology and time-sensitive shipments, booking constraints are expected to remain largely origin- and departure-specific rather than spreading across Asia as a whole.
Asia-Europe market remains comparatively less pressured
The Asia-Europe air cargo market is expected to remain less broadly constrained than the transpacific, although individual technology-heavy origins could experience tighter capacity.
Technology, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, industrial manufacturing and selected healthcare cargo are maintaining demand, while e-commerce remains below last year’s levels. The resulting market picture is one of selective tightening rather than widespread capacity pressure.
C.H. Robinson recommends that shippers assess China, Southeast Asia and India separately, as differences in local cargo mix, aircraft type, gateway performance and airline schedules can produce significantly different booking conditions from one origin to another.
For shippers and forwarders, the message entering the second half of October is therefore one of preparation rather than panic. The strongest pressure is expected to emerge where technology cargo, new-product launches and limited freighter availability converge, while other origins and cargo categories may continue to offer comparatively workable capacity.
