The trans-Pacific air cargo market is beginning to show renewed signs of life, with volumes from Asia Pacific to the United States inching upward in recent weeks. However, the improvement contrasts with a softening of flows into Europe, suggesting that global trade patterns may be undergoing a rebalancing as Washington finalises fresh tariff arrangements.
Volumes Edge Higher on the Trans-Pacific
According to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data, chargeable weight between China and the US rose 1% in the week ending August 10 (week 32). This followed flat performance in week 31 and a stronger 5% uplift in week 30.
On a year-on-year basis, exports from China to the US were up 5% in week 32—marking the first positive annual growth since mid-April. Analysts suggest that renewed confidence among shippers may reflect clarity around tariff timelines and a shift in export priorities.
Europe Flows Show Weakness
In contrast, export tonnage from the Asia Pacific to Europe has now declined for four consecutive weeks, led by decreases from China, South Korea, and Indonesia.
“The opposing developments in sectors to Europe and North America suggest a potential rebalancing of Chinese airfreight exports and a re-engagement with the US as more tariffs are finalised,” WorldACD noted.
Despite the short-term downturn, Asia-to-Europe volumes remain 7% higher year on year, buoyed by strong growth from Vietnam (+29%), Hong Kong (+21%), and China (+8%).
Spot Rate Movements
Pricing trends continue to diverge across the region. Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US rose 2% week on week but remain 14% lower year on year.
- Taiwan to US: Rates surged 9% week on week, and Taiwan remains the only market with year-on-year growth (+9%).
- South Korea to US: Rates slipped 5% week on week, following a sharp 10% drop the previous week that wiped out earlier annual gains.
- China to US: Rates are down 11% year on year but showed a 5% week-on-week recovery.
- Other APAC markets: Prices fell 2% each from Japan, Vietnam, and Singapore; 8% from Thailand; and 29% from Vietnam on an annual basis.
Meanwhile, Asia Pacific–Europe spot rates were relatively stable, down just 3% year on year.
- Declines: China (-3%), Hong Kong (-2%), Singapore (-2%), South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand (all -1%).
- Gains: Vietnam (+4%), Japan, Malaysia, and Indonesia (all +3%).
Market Outlook
The emerging divergence between trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe trade lanes highlights the dynamic nature of air cargo flows in response to shifting trade policies. Analysts suggest that as US tariff frameworks settle, shippers may increasingly pivot capacity back to North America, even as Europe continues to benefit from growth in Southeast Asian exports.
While volatility persists, the latest uptick in China–US cargo volumes may be an early indicator of renewed momentum in trans-Pacific trade, a trend closely watched by airlines and forwarders ahead of the traditional peak season beginning in September.
