TAC Index reports a further weekly increase in global air cargo rates, with the benchmark moving above the peaks recorded during the previous two holiday seasons amid higher fuel costs and market disruption.
Global air freight rates have accelerated again ahead of the traditional year-end peak, with the Baltic Air Freight Index rising 4.7% in the week to 19 October and standing 26.4% higher than a year earlier, according to data from TAC Index.
The latest increase has pushed the global benchmark above the highest levels recorded during the previous two peak seasons, which typically see demand strengthen ahead of Thanksgiving in the United States and Christmas in Europe.
The figures point to mounting cost pressures across the air cargo market as carriers, freight forwarders and shippers prepare for the final months of the year. Rates were already elevated following disruption linked to conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia–Ukraine war, while higher jet fuel prices have added to operating costs.
According to the International Air Transport Association’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor, jet fuel prices were up 113.7% year on year as of 16 October. Rising fuel costs can put upward pressure on freight rates as airlines seek to recover higher operating expenses.
China-led demand lifts rates on key trade lanes
TAC Index reported that the latest global increase was led by strong week-on-week gains on some of the busiest routes from China to the United States, with more moderate increases on routes to Europe.
Spot rates from Hong Kong and Shanghai have also strengthened. The full index for outbound Hong Kong shipments rose 5.3% over the week, leaving it 26% higher year on year. Shanghai’s outbound index increased 8.4% week on week and stood 22.3% above its level a year earlier.
Rates also firmed on several other Asian export routes, including those from Seoul and Taiwan, while rates from India recorded further gains. Movements across Southeast Asia were more mixed, with conditions varying by origin and destination.
The pattern highlights the uneven nature of the current market: strong increases on selected Asian export lanes are contributing to the global rise, but rate performance differs substantially between individual routes.
European outbound rates show a mixed picture
In contrast to the gains from major Asian export hubs, rates from Europe softened slightly during the week after recent increases. TAC Index reported declines on transatlantic routes to the United States and on some lanes to India, Japan, Australia and South Africa.
Other routes from Europe, including those to China, Mexico, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates, recorded further gains.
The Frankfurt outbound index fell 6.6% week on week but remained 33.7% above its year-earlier level. London Heathrow’s outbound index declined 2.3% over the week, while staying 35.2% higher year on year.
Changes in e-commerce flows to Europe have also influenced market conditions. Lower volumes of low-value parcels following changes to the European Union’s customs treatment of small consignments have affected demand and capacity on some Asia–Europe routes.
North American rates strengthen on selected routes
Air freight rates from North America were generally firmer on routes to China and other Asian destinations, as well as to South America, with notable increases on some southbound services from Miami.
However, rates from the United States to Europe and the United Kingdom eased slightly. The Chicago outbound index rebounded by 9.5% week on week and stood 33.1% above its level a year earlier.
The latest figures underline the importance of looking beyond the global average when assessing air freight market conditions. Regional indices show that some lanes are experiencing sharp increases while others remain comparatively stable or are moving lower.
With the year-end peak approaching, rate movements are likely to remain sensitive to demand, available capacity, fuel prices and geopolitical developments. The latest TAC Index data indicate that the market is entering the peak period from a significantly higher rate base than in 2025.
