Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer
https://www.stattimes.com/air-cargo/xeneta-raises-2026-air-freight-outlook-1359928
Xeneta has revised its 2026 air freight market outlook, forecasting stronger freight rates and tighter capacity conditions as geopolitical disruption, changing trade patterns and shifting demand drivers reshape global air cargo markets.
In its Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update, the market intelligence provider said it now expects long-term shipper air freight rates to rise between 5% and 15% during 2026, reversing its previous forecast issued in December 2025, which anticipated a decline of 5% to 10%.
The revision follows significant disruption to global aviation supply chains after the escalation of conflict in the Middle East in late February, which affected aircraft availability, routing patterns and overall cargo capacity.
Xeneta now expects full-year air cargo demand growth to move towards the upper end of its previous 2% to 3% forecast range, while capacity expansion is expected to remain at the lower end of a revised 2% to 3% range, compared with the earlier forecast of 3% to 4% growth.
According to the report, the escalation of the conflict on 28 February 2026 removed approximately 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight, limiting worldwide capacity growth to just 1% during the first half of 2026. During the same period, demand increased by 4%, exceeding earlier expectations.
Capacity Pressure Supports Freight Rates
The imbalance between demand growth and available capacity has become a central factor supporting higher air cargo pricing during 2026.
With airlines facing operational constraints, longer routing requirements and limited fleet flexibility, shippers have experienced increased competition for available capacity on key international trade lanes.
The market environment has also highlighted the importance of cargo network resilience, as carriers and logistics providers continue adapting schedules and capacity deployment in response to geopolitical developments.
AI-Driven Demand Emerges as a Key Growth Factor
While traditional e-commerce air cargo growth has slowed, Xeneta identified artificial intelligence-related shipments as an increasingly important driver of demand.
Rising global investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure has accelerated demand for shipments of semiconductors, advanced electronics and AI hardware, supporting strong growth on technology-focused trade lanes.
Global semiconductor sales increased 106% year on year in April 2026, representing the strongest growth since industry records began in 1986.
Although AI-related products represent less than 10% of global air cargo volumes, these shipments are highly concentrated on the Transpacific trade lane, which has emerged as one of the strongest-performing corridors in 2026.
E-Commerce Growth Faces Headwinds
In contrast, the rapid e-commerce expansion that fuelled air cargo growth in recent years has slowed significantly.
China’s low-value and e-commerce exports declined 7% year on year in May 2026, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction.
The slowdown has been further influenced by regulatory changes in Europe, following the European Union’s removal of the €150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports on 1 July 2026. The new framework introduces a €3 duty per item, with an additional €2 handling fee expected from November, increasing costs for low-value cross-border shipments.
These changes are expected to put further pressure on the parcel-based e-commerce model that had become a major contributor to global air freight growth.
Nicolas van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, said the exceptional growth rates seen in e-commerce air cargo are unlikely to return.
“I cannot see the e-commerce growth engine being revived. There will always be a consumer demand for cheap goods manufactured in Asia, but the extraordinary demand growth of recent years will not be sustained. E-commerce was air freight’s single biggest growth pillar, but that is no longer the case.”
Market Outlook Remains Shaped by Structural Changes
The latest forecast indicates that the global air cargo market is entering a more complex phase, where growth will increasingly depend on technology supply chains, specialised cargo movements and capacity availability rather than broad-based consumer e-commerce expansion.
While geopolitical uncertainty continues to influence network planning and freight rates, strong demand for high-value technology products and constrained capacity are expected to remain key factors supporting the air freight market through 2026.
