Demand for AI-related semiconductors, advanced computing hardware and other high-value technology products continued to underpin air cargo growth across the Asia Pacific region in June, even as analysts warn that a slowing global economy could moderate overall market expansion during the second half of 2026.
Latest figures from the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines show that international air cargo demand remained resilient, while market intelligence from Xeneta indicates artificial intelligence (AI) supply chains have become the strongest growth engine for the global air freight industry.
Asia Pacific Cargo Demand Remains Resilient
According to AAPA, international air cargo demand, measured in freight tonne kilometres (FTK), increased 3.2% year-on-year in June.
Cargo capacity grew by a modest 0.2%, resulting in the average international freight load factor rising 1.8 percentage points to 62.6%, reflecting healthy utilisation levels despite ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
The June performance follows another strong month in May, when Asia Pacific airlines also benefited from increased technology shipments and inventory stockpiling amid evolving global trade conditions.
Commenting on the results, Wong Hong, Director General of AAPA, said international cargo markets had maintained positive momentum throughout the first half of the year.
“International air cargo markets continued to perform well, with demand growing by 7.0% in the first half of the year, supported by continued demand for AI-related semiconductor shipments and other high-value, time-sensitive goods amid evolving trade dynamics.”
AI Emerges as Air Cargo’s Biggest Growth Driver
The rapid global expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure is fundamentally reshaping international air freight flows.
According to Xeneta’s Air Freight Outlook Update published in July, shipments of AI servers, semiconductors and high-performance computing equipment have overtaken e-commerce as the primary driver of premium air cargo demand, particularly across Transpacific and Southeast Asian trade lanes.
The report notes that AI-related shipments contributed an estimated 7% year-on-year boost to global air cargo demand in June, helping offset weaker China–US e-commerce volumes following higher U.S. tariffs.
Although AI cargo represents less than 10% of global air freight volumes, its high value and urgent delivery requirements make it disproportionately important on key technology corridors connecting Asia with North America and Europe.
Supporting this trend, DHL Global Forwarding recently introduced a three-times-weekly widebody cargo service between Bangkok and Cincinnati, citing growing demand from the technology sector.
Meanwhile, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics reported that global semiconductor sales surged by nearly 94% year-on-year in April, while Taiwan—one of the world’s leading chip manufacturing hubs—recorded approximately 15% GDP growth during the first quarter of 2026, driven largely by semiconductor exports.
Global Growth Expected to Moderate
Despite continued strength in technology-driven shipments, Xeneta expects the broader air cargo market to slow during the second half of the year as economic growth moderates.
Global air cargo demand increased 4% year-on-year by the end of June, outperforming earlier forecasts of 2–3% growth. However, the company expects demand and capacity growth to gradually converge, with annual capacity expansion likely to remain at the lower end of the 2–3% range.
Recent data from the International Air Transport Association underscores the resilience of Asia Pacific carriers, which recorded 7.9% cargo demand growth against a 4.3% increase in capacity during June. North American airlines posted even stronger performance, with demand rising 13.1% and capacity increasing 6.2%.
Capacity Constraints Persist
A key factor supporting the air cargo market remains the limited availability of additional aircraft capacity.
According to aviation consultancy Transport Research Advisory, aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus continue to face supply chain challenges that have constrained widebody aircraft production since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Only around 75 widebody passenger aircraft were produced by the two manufacturers during the first six months of 2026—just six more than in the corresponding period of 2025.
Because widebody passenger aircraft carry approximately 40% of the world’s air cargo in their lower-deck holds, the limited pace of deliveries is expected to keep pressure on available cargo capacity and sustain demand for dedicated freighter aircraft.
Freight Rates Continue to Rise
The constrained supply environment, combined with geopolitical tensions, is also driving higher freight rates.
Xeneta now forecasts global air cargo rates to rise between 5% and 15% year-on-year, reversing its earlier expectation that rates would decline during 2026.
The conflict involving Iran has increased fuel price volatility, disrupted airline networks and prompted freight forwarders to rely more heavily on the spot market.
During the second quarter, nearly 50% of global air freight volumes were purchased on spot contracts, while 58% of newly negotiated shipper-forwarder agreements were limited to three months or less, compared with 22% during the same period last year.
Although spot rates have softened since early July following a decline in Middle East tensions, Xeneta believes the structural imbalance between demand and available capacity is likely to prevent significant reductions in air freight pricing.
Industry Faces Continued Uncertainty
While AI investment continues to provide a strong foundation for premium cargo demand, airlines remain cautious about the broader operating environment.
AAPA warned that geopolitical instability in the Middle East, fluctuating fuel prices, softer business confidence and uncertainty surrounding international trade policies could moderate both passenger and cargo market growth in the months ahead.
Wong Hong said persistent geopolitical risks and higher operating costs continue to present challenges for airlines despite the resilience of cargo demand.
As global supply chains become increasingly dependent on semiconductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure, technology shipments are expected to remain the principal driver of premium air cargo demand well beyond 2026. However, Xeneta cautioned that any significant slowdown in AI investment could have broader implications for the international air freight market.
