Xeneta reports a seventh consecutive month of year-on-year volume growth, while global spot rates climb 29% and capacity remains largely unchanged. Transatlantic and transpacific markets strengthen, but declining e-commerce shipments cloud the outlook for Asia–Europe traffic.
Global air cargo demand increased by 6% year-on-year in October 2026, extending the industry’s growth streak to seven consecutive months. However, despite stronger volumes and rising freight rates, the market is showing limited signs of the sharp seasonal acceleration traditionally associated with the fourth-quarter peak season.
According to the latest market analysis from freight intelligence platform Xeneta , October’s performance reflected steady demand rather than a significant peak-season surge. The assessment follows a 3% year-on-year decline in March, when escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupted aviation operations and forced the closure of Gulf airspace.
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Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the market continued to expand at a consistent pace, but there were few indications of a sudden increase in capacity pressure, charter activity or demand that would signal an exceptional late-season peak.
The latest figures suggest that air cargo is entering the final stretch of 2026 with resilient demand, but without the substantial acceleration that airlines and freight forwarders might typically expect during the busiest shipping period of the year.
Global spot rates rise to USD 3.11 per kg
Global air cargo spot rates averaged USD 3.11 per kg in October, representing a 29% increase compared with October 2025. Rates also advanced 4% month-on-month as the market moved into the fourth quarter.
The year-on-year rate increase widened for the second consecutive month after moderating between June and August.
Capacity availability remains a significant factor behind the elevated pricing environment. Following a 2% year-on-year increase in September, global air cargo capacity was flat in October.
With cargo volumes continuing to grow faster than available capacity, Xeneta’s Dynamic Load Factor increased by two percentage points year-on-year to 63%. The indicator measures aircraft capacity utilisation by considering both the weight and volume of cargo carried against available capacity.
The figures underline a market in which demand remains healthy, but limited capacity expansion is helping sustain higher freight rates.
Transatlantic and transpacific markets record stronger rates
All 10 major trade corridors covered in Xeneta’s monthly analysis recorded month-on-month increases in spot rates during October.
The strongest increase occurred on the westbound transatlantic route, where rates from Europe to North America rose 10% to USD 2.31 per kg. The increase coincided with airlines transitioning to winter schedules, tightening available capacity and influencing rates quoted by carriers to freight forwarders during recent tenders.
The transpacific market continued to benefit from shipments associated with artificial intelligence infrastructure, including technology equipment and related components.
Chargeable cargo weight from Asia-Pacific to North America increased approximately 15% year-on-year in October, while freighter capacity on the corridor followed a broadly similar growth trajectory, according to Rotate, Xeneta’s air cargo data platform.
Spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America increased 3% month-on-month to USD 6.34 per kg, while rates from Northeast Asia to North America rose 4% to USD 6.21 per kg.
Return traffic also recorded moderate improvements. Rates from North America to Europe increased 3% month-on-month to USD 1.15 per kg, while other backhaul routes registered gains of between 1% and 3%.
Asia–Europe corridor faces e-commerce slowdown
Despite higher spot rates, the outlook for the Asia–Europe air cargo market remains less certain.
Northeast Asia–Europe rates increased 4% month-on-month to USD 4.97 per kg, while Southeast Asia–Europe rates advanced 3% to USD 4.35 per kg.
However, declining e-commerce shipments are creating challenges for the corridor, which has relied heavily on cross-border online retail volumes to support freighter utilisation in recent years.
According to Xeneta and Trade and Transport Group analysis of China Customs data, China’s low-value and e-commerce exports to the European Union fell 61% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, following the introduction of a €3 customs duty per item on 1 July.
Overall Chinese exports to Europe declined by a smaller 29%, partly because exports to Russia more than tripled during the period.
The introduction of an additional €2 handling fee per item by the EU from 1 November is expected to exert further pressure on low-value e-commerce shipments. However, Xeneta believes the additional impact may be relatively limited because these cargo flows have already experienced a substantial decline.
Capacity developments are adding another dimension to the market. Direct freighter capacity between Asia and Europe declined again in October, compounding reductions on routes previously operated through the Middle East.
The pricing difference between major trade lanes reflects these contrasting market conditions. China–Europe spot rates were 6% higher year-on-year in October, compared with a 38% increase on the China–North America corridor.
Europe is also receiving a smaller share of the AI-related cargo driving transpacific demand. According to the World Trade Organization, Europe accounts for approximately one-tenth of global AI-related goods trade, compared with more than one-third of overall global goods trade.
Red Sea recovery could redirect cargo back to ocean freight
Another important factor shaping the outlook for air cargo is the gradual return of container shipping services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.
Xeneta’s ocean freight data indicates that scheduled container shipping capacity crossing the Red Sea reached approximately half of its pre-crisis level in October 2026.
Just over half of Asia–Europe container shipping capacity was being routed through the Suez Canal in at least one direction, while approximately one-third of services were operating through the canal on both outbound and return journeys.
The disruption to ocean freight schedules during the Red Sea crisis had encouraged some shippers to move cargo to air freight to secure more predictable delivery times.
Xeneta’s analysis of Eurostat data illustrates this relationship. Air freight’s share of EU import tonnage from Asia increased from 1.1% in 2023 to 1.7% in 2024, when the Red Sea crisis significantly affected ocean shipping reliability.
During the same period, schedule reliability on services from the Far East to Northern Europe fell from 28% to 9.3%.
As ocean reliability improved to 20% in 2025, air freight’s share declined to 1.2%. During the first eight months of 2026, it edged up to 1.3%, following further disruption linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February.
The latest Eurostat figures currently extend only to August and therefore do not capture the full impact of the autumn return of shipping services through the Red Sea. Nevertheless, Xeneta reported that schedule reliability between the Far East and Northern Europe remained low at approximately 10% in October.
The company expects cargo that shifted to air freight primarily for reliability rather than speed to gradually return to ocean transport once shipping schedules demonstrate a sustained recovery. This transition is considered most likely to begin in the second quarter of 2027.
Until then, air cargo operators are expected to retain much of the traffic diverted from ocean shipping.
Xeneta plans to examine these developments further in its forthcoming 2027 Air Freight Outlook.
2027 rates expected to face downward pressure
Looking ahead, Xeneta’s baseline forecast points towards an overall decline in air freight rates during 2027, although uncertainty surrounding capacity availability and geopolitical developments remains significant.
The fourth quarter is traditionally a challenging period for long-term contract negotiations, as many shippers prefer to avoid committing to new agreements during the busiest months of the year.
Consequently, several procurement processes are now being initiated with the objective of concluding agreements during the first or second quarter of 2027.
However, forwarders and shippers continue to face difficulties in agreeing on long-term pricing arrangements.
Van de Wouw said forwarders could offer 12-month contracts, but the level of uncertainty in the market would require significant risk allowances to be incorporated into pricing, potentially making those agreements less competitive.
He also emphasised that recent increases in air freight rates have been driven more by the availability of capacity than by demand growth alone.
A recovery in the Middle East situation could change the balance between supply and demand, potentially bringing rates down as additional capacity becomes available.
Nevertheless, recurring geopolitical disruptions and other unforeseen developments continue to complicate market forecasts and commercial negotiations.
The frequency of such disruptions, he observed, has made it increasingly difficult for the industry to treat them as exceptional events.
For airlines, freight forwarders and shippers, the challenge heading into 2027 will therefore be to balance pricing competitiveness with the need for flexibility in an environment where capacity, trade flows and geopolitical conditions can change rapidly.
A market growing steadily, but without a major peak
October’s performance highlights the contrasting forces shaping global air cargo. Demand remains resilient, spot rates are substantially higher than a year ago, and selected trade lanes continue to benefit from technology-related shipments and constrained capacity.
At the same time, declining e-commerce traffic on Asia–Europe routes, the potential return of diverted cargo to ocean freight and uncertainty over Middle East capacity are likely to influence the industry’s direction in 2027.
For now, the market is maintaining its growth trajectory, but the expected late-year surge has yet to materialise.
