Airfreight rates across key global corridors—particularly Asia–Europe and India-origin routes—have surged sharply in recent weeks, driven by ongoing Middle East tensions, constrained capacity, and escalating jet fuel costs. Market analysts and industry sources indicate that further increases are likely as airlines adjust pricing structures to reflect rising operational expenses.
According to data from TAC Index, rate volatility has intensified across major trade lanes, with significant disparities emerging depending on geographic exposure to the conflict. The global Baltic Air Freight Index recorded a 2.6% week-on-week increase as of 16 March, though it remains marginally below year-ago levels by 0.7%.
The most pronounced price escalation has been observed on Asia–Europe routes. Spot rates from Hong Kong to Europe have climbed above $5.15 per kilogram—an increase of nearly 30% compared with pre-conflict levels of approximately $4 per kilogram. Notably, these rates now exceed those on the Hong Kong–North America corridor, reflecting shifting demand patterns and capacity constraints.
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India-origin traffic has experienced even steeper increases. Rates from India to the United States have risen by around 60% since the onset of the conflict, while services to Europe have seen surges of up to 80%. Week-on-week data further highlights the intensity of the spike, with Indian export routes registering gains of approximately 30% to both Europe and North America.
TAC Index noted that rate movements across Asia have been uneven. Strong week-on-week gains were recorded in markets such as Vietnam, Seoul, and Taiwan—particularly on routes to Europe—while Bangkok represented a notable exception, with declining weekly rates despite remaining elevated year-on-year.
A key driver behind the sustained upward pressure on rates is the widening “crack spread” between crude oil and jet fuel prices. Industry sources report that jet fuel costs are now approaching double their levels from a year ago, significantly increasing airline operating expenses. As a result, additional fuel surcharges are expected to be introduced or expanded across multiple carriers.
This trend is already triggering friction within the logistics sector. The Hong Kong Association of Freight Forwarding and Logistics has publicly criticized airlines for imposing steep cargo fuel surcharges, describing some increases as exceeding reasonable thresholds and placing undue pressure on freight forwarders.
At the same time, airlines are implementing broader cost-recovery measures. Oman Air Cargo recently confirmed the introduction of both fuel and war risk surcharges, reflecting a wider industry shift toward pricing adjustments in response to geopolitical risk and cost inflation.
Capacity constraints are further exacerbating the situation. Data from Rotate indicates that global air cargo capacity remains approximately 12% below pre-Chinese New Year levels. The most heavily impacted corridors include Asia Pacific–Middle East and Middle East–Europe routes, both of which have seen capacity reductions of around 40%.
However, carriers have begun to respond by reallocating resources. Capacity on Asia Pacific–Europe routes has increased by approximately 20%, offering some relief, though not enough to offset the broader supply-demand imbalance.
As the market continues to adjust to geopolitical disruptions and rising fuel costs, industry stakeholders anticipate continued volatility. Freight forwarders, shippers, and airlines alike are navigating an increasingly complex environment where pricing dynamics, capacity availability, and operational risk are closely intertwined.
