Surging global semiconductor demand, combined with supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis, has driven transpacific air cargo aircraft utilisation close to its operational limits, according to the latest market analysis from Xeneta.
Data from Xeneta shows that the dynamic load factor—measuring both available space and weight utilisation—on air cargo services from Asia Pacific to North America has reached 90%, a level considered close to the practical maximum for cargo operations.
Speaking during a Xeneta and The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) industry webinar, Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the exceptionally high utilisation levels reflect a combination of geopolitical disruptions and a structural shift in cargo demand, particularly from the rapidly expanding semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure sectors.
Semiconductor and AI Infrastructure Drive Air Freight Demand
The accelerated development of AI data centres and cloud infrastructure has created a significant increase in demand for high-value semiconductor components, making air transport a critical link in global technology supply chains.
According to Xeneta, global semiconductor revenues surged by 106% year-on-year in early 2026, with a strong correlation emerging between semiconductor shipments and rising transpacific air freight rates.
Key Asian export markets recorded substantial increases in air cargo pricing to the United States. In May 2026, average rates from Taiwan to the US reached USD 7.02 per kilogram, representing a 24% increase year-on-year. Rates from China to the US climbed to USD 5.86 per kilogram, up 46%, while shipments from Malaysia to the US reached USD 6.69 per kilogram, reflecting a 36% increase compared with the previous year.
Niall van de Wouw explained that companies moving semiconductor-related cargo prioritise speed and reliability over transportation costs due to the strategic importance of securing critical components.
“Whether they pay five, six or seven dollars per kilogram is largely secondary to receiving the infrastructure they need to build data centres and deploy AI applications as quickly as possible,” he said.
Shift in Air Cargo Demand Patterns
Xeneta highlighted that semiconductor shipments have increasingly replaced cross-border e-commerce as the primary growth engine for the air cargo market.
Data indicates that China’s business-to-consumer (B2C) cross-border e-commerce exports declined by 11% year-on-year in April 2026. Exports to the United States dropped sharply by 33%, while shipments to Europe decreased by 6%.
The decline follows changes to international low-value parcel regulations, including the United States’ removal of the de minimis exemption for small parcels. The European Union is also introducing a €3 charge on such shipments from July, although its impact is expected to be less significant compared with the regulatory changes implemented in the US.
Strong Market Conditions Expected to Continue
The sustained demand from semiconductor and AI-related supply chains, coupled with ongoing geopolitical challenges, has altered earlier market expectations of declining air freight rates.
According to Xeneta, the downward rate correction anticipated in the market outlook for late 2025 has been offset by disruptions experienced during the first half of 2026, making a significant full-year decline in air cargo rates increasingly unlikely.
The company also noted that a traditional third and fourth quarter peak season driven by e-commerce demand is no longer expected, reflecting a broader transformation in global air cargo trade patterns.
As technology supply chains become increasingly time-sensitive and AI infrastructure investment accelerates worldwide, the transpacific corridor is likely to remain one of the most capacity-constrained and strategically important air cargo routes in the global market.
