Air cargo volumes from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe showed signs of stabilisation in September, with the year-on-year decline narrowing as mainland shipments recovered towards early-summer levels, according to WorldACD Market Data.
Combined tonnages from the two origins to Europe fell 10% year on year in September, improving on declines of 14% in both July and August. The downturn followed the European Union’s introduction of new import rules for low-value goods on 1 July, which have added costs and administrative requirements for cross-border e-commerce shipments.
The overall figures, however, mask a significant difference between mainland China and Hong Kong. Tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe dropped 24% year on year in September, while shipments from mainland China declined by just 2%.
The mainland China result marked an improvement on year-on-year falls of 5% in August and 9% in July. According to WorldACD, September volumes had recovered close to their June levels.
The divergence reflects the greater exposure of Hong Kong’s air cargo market to cross-border e-commerce shipments, which have been particularly affected by the EU’s revised import arrangements.
China-US trade continues to outperform
While China-Europe traffic remains under pressure, air cargo volumes from China to the United States have continued to expand strongly.
WorldACD reported a 17% year-on-year increase in China-US tonnages in September, contrasting with the contraction on the European trade lane.
Pricing trends have also diverged. Average full-market rates from China to Europe fell from US$5.22 per kg in June to US$4.26 per kg in August before recovering to US$4.53 per kg in September. The September rate was 9% higher than a year earlier, compared with year-on-year growth of 30% in June.
By comparison, average spot rates from China to the US reached US$6.05 per kg in September, up 30% year on year.
The contrasting volume and pricing patterns underline how changes in trade flows and demand are affecting air freight markets differently, with the China-US corridor retaining stronger momentum than the China-Europe route.
Global air cargo volumes rebound
The improvement in September extended beyond the China-Europe market. WorldACD reported that global air cargo tonnages increased 3% month on month and 9% year on year, recovering strongly after a slowdown in August.
All major origin regions recorded annual growth. Asia-Pacific and North American origins each increased by 10% year on year, while Middle East and South Asia rose 9%. Europe and Africa both recorded growth of 8%, and Central and South America increased 5%.
WorldACD attributed the stronger market to resilient demand amid changing geopolitical and economic conditions, including continued demand from the high-technology sector. Air freight also remains important for high-value and time-sensitive goods and for businesses managing supply chain disruptions and imbalances.
The September figures suggest that, although regulatory changes have reshaped low-value e-commerce flows between Asia and Europe, the wider air cargo market continues to demonstrate growth. The pace of recovery on the China-Europe corridor will depend in part on how shippers and e-commerce operators adapt to the new import requirements.
