Key Highlights

• Global demand continues to accelerate: Worldwide air cargo demand increased 8.5% year-on-year in June 2026, outpacing capacity growth of 4.4%, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), resulting in higher cargo load factors.
• Technology and urgent shipments drive growth: Strong demand for high-value technology products and time-critical shipments helped air cargo outperform global trade growth, which rose 5.2% during the month.
• North America leads regional performance: North American airlines recorded the strongest growth globally, with cargo demand increasing 13.1%, while Middle Eastern carriers returned to positive territory following last year’s conflict-related disruptions.
• Trade lane performance remains mixed: Asia–North America was the fastest-growing corridor, rising 14.7%, while Europe–Middle East traffic remained under pressure, declining 41.1% for a fourth consecutive month.
• Second-half outlook remains positive: Despite easing fuel prices and improving market fundamentals, IATA cautioned that geopolitical tensions and renewed U.S. tariff uncertainty continue to pose risks to global air cargo growth.

Global Air Cargo Demand Climbs 8.5% in June as Technology Shipments Fuel Market Recovery

Global air cargo demand continued its upward trajectory in June 2026, with shipments of high-value technology products, urgent freight and improving market conditions driving growth well ahead of capacity expansion, according to the latest market data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), increased 8.5% year-on-year, comfortably exceeding the 4.4% increase in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs). The imbalance between demand and supply pushed cargo load factors higher across most global markets, highlighting continued strength in the air freight sector.

IATA noted that air cargo demand also outperformed global merchandise trade, which expanded by 5.2% during the same period, suggesting that premium cargo segments such as technology products and time-sensitive shipments continued to favour air transport.

Capacity Tightens as Demand Outpaces Supply

While airlines continued adding capacity across most regions, growth remained below demand, creating tighter market conditions.

African carriers were the only region to reduce available cargo capacity during the month, while airlines elsewhere expanded lift at a more measured pace.

Fuel costs also provided some relief for carriers. Jet fuel prices declined 20% compared with May, reflecting improved oil flows through the Persian Gulf, although prices remained 45.8% higher than a year earlier.

Air cargo yields denominated in U.S. dollars recorded their first month-on-month decline after several months of increases, but pricing continued to remain well above 2025 levels.

Manufacturing Signals Mixed Global Trade Environment

Despite strong air cargo demand, broader manufacturing indicators suggested that global trade conditions remained uneven.

The Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped to 53.0 in June, while the New Export Orders Index remained below the 50-point expansion threshold for the fourth consecutive month at 49.4.

According to IATA, this indicates that recent air cargo growth has been driven more by specific high-value trade flows than by a broad-based recovery in global exports.

North America Delivers Strongest Regional Growth

Regional performance remained positive across every major market, with North American airlines recording the strongest growth worldwide.

Cargo demand among North American carriers increased 13.1% year-on-year, while capacity expanded 6.2%, reflecting robust performance across international trade lanes.

Asia-Pacific airlines reported demand growth of 7.9%, supported by continued exports of electronics and technology products, with capacity increasing 4.3%.

European carriers achieved a 6.9% increase in cargo demand alongside 3.7% capacity growth.

Middle Eastern airlines returned to positive territory, reporting 5.6% demand growth as markets recovered from the disruption experienced during June 2025 due to regional conflict. Capacity in the region increased 2.5%.

Latin American and Caribbean carriers posted the slowest regional growth, with demand rising 3.5% while capacity expanded 9.8%, creating comparatively weaker market conditions.

African airlines recorded 4.7% demand growth despite a 7.1% reduction in available capacity.

Asia–North America Trade Lane Leads Global Growth

Performance varied significantly across major international trade corridors.

The Asia–North America route continued to outperform all other markets, recording 14.7% year-on-year growth and extending its expansion to a fifth consecutive month.

Other strong-performing corridors included Within Asia, Europe–Asia, and Africa–Asia, reflecting sustained manufacturing activity and cross-border demand across key production markets.

In contrast, routes linked to the Middle East remained affected by ongoing geopolitical challenges.

The Europe–Middle East trade lane declined 41.1% year-on-year, marking its fourth consecutive month of contraction as regional instability continued to disrupt cargo flows.

Industry Optimistic Despite Ongoing Risks

Commenting on the June results, Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, said the market remained resilient despite continuing geopolitical uncertainty.

“Air cargo demand grew 8.5% year-on-year in June. While North America was the strongest contributor to growth, demand in all regions was in positive territory compared to last year.”

He noted that demand continued to grow faster than both capacity and global trade, supported by strong demand for technology products and urgent shipments.

However, Walsh cautioned that challenges remain.

“While this all gives strong reasons for optimism in the second half of 2026, risks remain—continuing hostilities in the Middle East and a renewed focus on tariffs by the US among them.”

Despite those uncertainties, June’s performance highlights the resilience of the air cargo market, with demand continuing to be supported by specialised, high-value shipments and constrained capacity across key international trade lanes.