Global air cargo rates continued their upward trajectory in the week of April 6–12, 2026, even as demand weakened and tonnages declined, highlighting persistent volatility across international freight markets. The latest weekly analysis from WorldACD Market Data points to a complex interplay of reduced demand, recovering capacity, and ongoing geopolitical disruption.
Average worldwide spot rates rose by a further 3 percent in week 15, reaching US$3.76 per kilogram. This places rates 37 percent higher than the same period last year and more than 40 percent above levels recorded at the end of February, when escalating tensions involving the US-Israel Iran strikes triggered significant market upheaval.
Regional Rate Trends Show Broad-Based Increases
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The sharpest week-on-week increase was recorded in North America, where spot rates rose by 6 percent to an average of US$2.73 per kilogram—representing a 52 percent year-on-year increase. Africa also posted gains, with rates climbing 4 percent week-on-week to US$2.95 per kilogram, marking a 62 percent annual rise.
In Asia Pacific, spot rates edged up by 2 percent to US$4.95 per kilogram, maintaining a 24 percent year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region saw a slight 1 percent week-on-week decline in rates to US$4.81 per kilogram. Despite this marginal dip, rates from the region remain 66 percent higher compared to the same period last year, reflecting continued disruption and constrained capacity.
Demand Weakens as Seasonal and Structural Factors Weigh on Volumes
On the demand side, global air cargo tonnages fell by 6 percent week-on-week in week 15, following a 3 percent decline the previous week. This places overall volumes 8 percent below year-ago levels, based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions tracked by WorldACD.
Europe recorded the steepest decline, with a 15 percent drop in chargeable weight, largely attributed to widespread Easter holiday closures. Other regions also saw contractions, including Africa (-7 percent), Asia Pacific (-3 percent), MESA (-3 percent), and North America (-2 percent).
Capacity Recovery Continues but Remains Uneven
Global air cargo capacity increased modestly by 1 percent week-on-week, supported primarily by a 7 percent recovery in capacity from the MESA region. While overall capacity levels have nearly returned to those seen a year ago, MESA-origin capacity remains approximately 20 percent below 2025 levels.
Over weeks 14 and 15 combined, capacity from the region rose by 14 percent compared to the preceding two weeks, though it still trails last year’s levels by 25 percent. Notably, tonnages from MESA during this two-week period were slightly higher year-on-year, driven by increased reliance on freighter aircraft and sustained demand amid ongoing disruptions to ocean freight, including congestion and delays.
South Asia Rebounds as Trade Flows Shift
Within the MESA region, South Asia has shown signs of stabilisation. Capacity has recovered to within 5 percent of pre-conflict levels, with new direct routes to Europe compensating for reduced connectivity via traditional Middle Eastern hubs.
Tonnages from MESA to Europe rose by 3 percent year-on-year in week 15, despite a slight 4 percent decline in volumes from India. Bangladesh, however, recorded a significant surge in exports to Europe during the same period.
Pricing trends on these routes remain elevated. Average rates from MESA to Europe increased by 89 percent year-on-year to US$4.53 per kilogram, including a 77 percent rise from India, 94 percent from Bangladesh, and 71 percent from Sri Lanka.
Outlook Remains Uncertain Amid Fragile Ceasefire
A temporary ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran has raised cautious optimism for de-escalation. However, the truce remains fragile, and market sentiment continues to reflect uncertainty.
Industry observers warn that inflationary pressures and elevated jet fuel costs are likely to persist, even if geopolitical tensions ease. Concerns are also mounting over potential jet fuel shortages, which could trigger flight cancellations and further rate increases in the weeks ahead.
At the same time, the recovery of bellyhold capacity through the Middle East is expected to be gradual. Ocean freight operators have also indicated that a return to pre-crisis capacity levels may take time, suggesting that air cargo demand—and pricing—will remain elevated in the near term.
